Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf72…27e3 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 733d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$149 (-2%) realized −$72 · open −$77
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$433per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$6,458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$643
30 days+$643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$894
world 23% −$355
tech 2% +$21
politics 2% +$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +50.7% +36.4% 100% 100% +14.2%
≤90d 5 +39.3% +26.1% 80% 80% +14.2%
all 8 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 50% +13.9%
10% -9.0% 38% +3.0%
15% -17.8% 25% -7.0%
20% -25.9% 25% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$0 · ×397.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×397.76 per $1 lost it wins $397.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

733d coverage
Net worth$6,458
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)8 / 21
History coverage733d
Avg bet$433
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 69¢ $1,000 $1,692 +$692 (+69%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,034 +$34 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1,000 $1,009 +$9 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $900 $885 −$15 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 65¢ $300 $249 −$51 (-17%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $192 $198 +$6 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 88¢ $162 $175 +$13 (+8%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 62¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 30¢ $84 $32 −$51 (-61%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 47¢ $700 $26 −$674 (-96%)
Is Earth flat? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,265 +$306 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$215 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$50 +101%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $128 +$72 +56%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1 $0 -6%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 10 $23 $0 -1%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 10 $5 $0 -6%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 4m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $926 11m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 59m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $700 8d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $101 8d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $302 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $800 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $388 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 11d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $162 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $90 14d
Is Earth flat? BUY Yes $5 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 14d
Is Earth flat? BUY Yes $5 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $128 14d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $84 15d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 36d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 36d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 531d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 531d
Yoon arrested by January 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 531d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 93¢ $13 532d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,457.71 · official $6,519.69 (match) · 39 history records