Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbf71…9455 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,283 (-12%) realized −$2,428 · open −$855
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate74%46W / 16L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$832
crypto 23% +$233
other 18% −$32
politics 3% −$4
sports 2% +$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -4.7% -13.7% 74% 26% -2.5%
≤30d 62 -4.7% -13.7% 74% 26% -2.5%
≤90d 62 -4.7% -13.7% 74% 26% -2.5%
all 62 -4.7% -13.7% 74% 26% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 26% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 10% -11.8%
15% -29.5% 6% -20.4%
20% -36.4% 6% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$27 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5,278
Realized−$2,428
Unrealized−$855
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses46 / 16
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage6d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $4,606 $4,634 +$28 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 18¢ 6¢ $1,200 $382 −$818 (-68%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 82¢ 57¢ $200 $139 −$61 (-30%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 89¢ 86¢ $122 $118 −$4 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 59¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $253 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $203 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$30 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $204 −$90 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $212 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$35 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $106 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $205 +$107 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $206 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $204 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $306 +$154 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $131 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,277.71 · official $5,277.74 (match) · 220 history records