Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BF 0xbf71…a111 world 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$38
sports 22% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -23.3% -30.6% 17% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 11 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 0% -10.6%
all 11 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 0% -10.6%
10% -27.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -34.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -41.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$39 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage85d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $375 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 29 $376 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $248 $0 +0%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 17 $258 $0 +0%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $105 −$42 -40%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $411 +$4 +1%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-1.5) Apr 25 $427 +$26 +6%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 24 $427 $0 +0%
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) Apr 07 $218 +$9 +4%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $192 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records