Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf71…97eb crypto 1565 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$378 (+2%) realized +$378 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%964W / 601L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$325
14 days−$366
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$786
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 721 -3.0% -12.3% 70% 68% -14.3%
≤30d 997 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 64% -14.7%
≤90d 1565 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 60% -14.0%
all 1565 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 60% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 60% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 58% -22.2%
15% -27.8% 35% -29.7%
20% -34.9% 28% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$378
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses964 / 601
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1565 / 1565
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1565 Trades
no open positions (199 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records