Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf6f…c9fe other 11 markets active 7d ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$946per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$160
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$10
other 2% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -81.7% -83.4% 18% 0% -84.5%
≤90d 13 -69.1% -72.0% 31% 0% -72.6%
all 19 -46.5% -51.6% 53% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 5% -10.8%
10% -56.2% 0% -19.3%
15% -60.4% 0% -27.1%
20% -64.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 11
History coverage180d
Avg bet$946
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$12 -112%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $123 −$62 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? Mar 30 $18 $0 +0%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? Feb 28 $16 +$2 +15%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $2,550 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $2,547 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 13? Dec 15 $2,545 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 12? Dec 13 $2,542 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records