Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf6e…94ed sports 654 markets active 3h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$45 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%158W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$26
14 days+$40
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$104
sports 29% −$66
world 23% +$11
crypto 1% −$3
weather 1% −$10
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.3% -19.7% 42% 42% +0.1%
≤30d 50 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 40% -6.5%
≤90d 552 -29.3% -36.0% 18% 17% -13.8%
all 652 -10.2% -18.8% 24% 18% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 18% -8.1%
10% -26.5% 17% -16.9%
15% -33.6% 16% -24.9%
20% -40.1% 14% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses158 / 494
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)652 / 654
History coverage120d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 44¢ 91¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+108%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$11 -49%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$38 -93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$6 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$68 +274%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $59 +$10 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $34 +$16 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$2 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$7 -59%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $21 +$54 +260%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $30 −$29 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $87 −$42 -48%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $60 −$14 -23%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 25 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $22 +$20 +90%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $35 +$33 +93%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $17 +$41 +237%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $12 +$24 +206%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $31 +$7 +23%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $37 +$25 +67%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $13 +$18 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 90¢ $5 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 89¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 9h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 18h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.80 · official $5.77 (match) · 2054 history records