Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf6d…75c7 tech 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$443 (-13%) realized −$433 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$347
30 days−$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$353
world 34% −$54
other 9% −$75
tech 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -61.5% -65.2% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 11 -56.5% -60.7% 0% 0% -37.8%
≤90d 20 -37.3% -43.3% 5% 0% -22.8%
all 20 -37.3% -43.3% 5% 0% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 0% -22.8%
10% -48.7% 0% -30.2%
15% -53.7% 0% -37.0%
20% -58.2% 0% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$26 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$433
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions10
Markets (closed)20 / 30
History coverage54d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of June? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $390? Yes 86¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $370? No 37¢ 24¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $370? No 47¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $375? No 34¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+30%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $390? No 40¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $400? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $380? No 39¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-72%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $440? Yes 46¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $360? No 45¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 Week of June 15 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of June? Jun 17 $86 −$3 -3%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -71%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 in June? Jun 17 $0 $0 -52%
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -4%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $466 −$79 -17%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 05 $203 −$105 -52%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 05 $102 −$102 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $250 −$57 -23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 15 $405 −$17 -4%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 15 $102 −$68 -68%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $101 −$3 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 10 $101 −$8 -8%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens May 10 $101 −$29 -28%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $101 −$3 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 07 $101 −$9 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 06 $893 +$2 +0%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 202 Apr 28 $300 −$5 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of June? SELL Yes 92¢ $83 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $370? BUY No 48¢ $2 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 17? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 in June? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $400? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $390? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $390? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $380? BUY No 39¢ $2 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $360? BUY No 45¢ $2 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $370? BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $440? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 15 above $440? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $375? BUY No 34¢ $2 3h
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $370? BUY No 26¢ $1 3h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of June? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 16h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of June? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 16h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of June? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 16h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of June? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 16h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of June? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 16h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of June? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.22 · official $33.30 (match) · 120 history records