Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf6d…aed7 crypto 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-5%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%84W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$37
14 days−$21
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 45% -21.5%
≤30d 183 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 45% -15.7%
≤90d 186 -9.0% -17.7% 45% 45% -16.3%
all 186 -9.0% -17.7% 45% 45% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 45% -16.3%
10% -25.5% 45% -24.3%
15% -32.7% 45% -31.6%
20% -39.3% 45% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses84 / 102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage40d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records