Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf6c…8ce4 crypto 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,431 (+9%) realized +$5,410 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate67%81W / 40L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$498per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,055
7 days+$451
14 days+$451
30 days+$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$1,033
sports 34% +$3,437
other 6% +$703
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.4% -39.8% 50% 40% -3.1%
≤30d 14 -32.8% -39.2% 50% 43% -3.1%
≤90d 64 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 44% +1.3%
all 121 -1.9% -11.3% 67% 45% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 45% -1.8%
10% -19.8% 32% -11.2%
15% -27.5% 28% -19.8%
20% -34.6% 20% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$96 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$5,410
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses81 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 126
History coverage119d
Avg bet$498
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 78¢ 87¢ $199 $220 +$21 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,892 +$160 +8%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,428 +$462 +32%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $995 +$434 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $695 −$669 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $252 −$250 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,025 +$366 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Apr 27 $1,000 +$213 +21%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 24 $26 −$26 -98%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $1,002 +$324 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $355 +$657 +185%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $40 −$38 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $355 −$342 -96%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $4,000 +$378 +9%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $71 −$70 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $74 −$73 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 15 $6 +$6 +105%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Apr 15 $30 +$32 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Red Wings vs. Lightning Apr 14 $13 +$7 +59%
EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $2,500 +$1,543 +62%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $114 −$112 -98%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $1,197 +$1,417 +118%
Will FC Famalicão vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $996 +$201 +20%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $1,500 −$1,484 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $1,645 +$72 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -94%
CDP Junior FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5 Apr 09 $300 +$143 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5PM ET Apr 07 $1,615 +$140 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $30 +$17 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $1,550 +$53 +3%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $100 +$50 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $1,573 +$443 +28%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $10 +$7 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1,892 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,428 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $994 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $1 29h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Un BUY 39¢ $1,494 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Total Corners Odd BUY 33¢ $408 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. Parag BUY 40¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $598 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $97 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $252 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,391 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbe BUY $1 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,025 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $7 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $3 20d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 20d
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) BUY Celtics 82¢ $1,000 58d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 24¢ $26 60d
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,002 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 61d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes $20 65d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $240 65d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $240 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.04 · official $219.91 (match) · 244 history records