Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf6a…bf42 crypto 812 markets active 4d ago coverage 156d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 156d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,138 (-9%) realized −$1,138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate70%569W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$144
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$289
sports 8% −$350
other 6% +$38
world 4% −$240
weather 1% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.2% -38.6% 43% 43% -25.9%
≤30d 7 -32.2% -38.6% 43% 43% -25.9%
≤90d 99 -80.2% -82.1% 9% 7% -50.0%
all 810 -6.4% -15.3% 70% 9% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 9% -16.1%
10% -23.4% 5% -24.1%
15% -30.8% 3% -31.5%
20% -37.6% 2% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses569 / 241
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)810 / 812
History coverage156d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 810 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $116 −$114 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $252 −$156 -62%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$41 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $243 +$136 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $116 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 28¢ $96 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $252 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 42¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $142 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 49¢ $254 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 65d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 14? BUY Yes 72¢ $90 65d
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 82d
Will United States win on 2026-03-28? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Gro SELL Bebop 100¢ $31 82d
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Gro BUY Bebop 87¢ $27 82d
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 82d
Will United States win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 82d
Will United States win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 82d
Will United States win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 82d
Will United States win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 82d
Will United States win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 82d
Will United States win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 82d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner SELL RUSTEC 9¢ $1 82d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY RUSTEC 56¢ $4 82d
Copa Colsanitas, Qualification: Ana Sofia Sanchez vs Gabriela Ce SELL Gabriela Ce 75¢ $4 82d
Copa Colsanitas, Qualification: Ana Sofia Sanchez vs Gabriela Ce BUY Gabriela Ce 78¢ $4 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records