Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf69…2e7d crypto 736 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$208 (+6%) realized +$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%343W / 393L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$108
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -10.2% -18.8% 41% 41% -17.4%
≤30d 736 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 46% -5.9%
≤90d 736 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 46% -5.9%
all 736 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 46% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 46% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 46% -14.9%
15% -24.7% 46% -23.1%
20% -32.1% 43% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses343 / 393
Open positions0
Markets (closed)736 / 736
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 736 Trades
no open positions (313 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1215 history records