Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf69…4fa2 sports 929 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,357 (-9%) realized −$3,391 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%258W / 664L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$574est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$907
other 2% −$314
crypto 0% +$16
tech 0% −$23
world 0% −$17
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +31.7% +19.2% 44% 41% +12.9%
≤30d 258 -24.1% -31.4% 24% 24% -22.9%
≤90d 768 -14.6% -22.7% 27% 26% -16.2%
all 922 -9.6% -18.2% 28% 28% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 28% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 28% -21.1%
15% -33.2% 27% -28.7%
20% -39.7% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$37 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized−$3,391
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses258 / 664
Est. fees paid−$574
Open positions11
Markets (closed)922 / 929
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 922 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 50¢ 52¢ $120 $126 +$6 (+5%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 56¢ 55¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 55¢ 62¢ $68 $76 +$8 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B FOKUS 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $28 $45 +$17 (+60%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 30¢ 34¢ $39 $44 +$5 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ 32¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+22%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 51¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $31 +$79 +258%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $83 +$137 +164%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $120 +$85 +71%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $41 +$239 +580%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 20 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $42 +$38 +92%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $32 +$27 +82%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $20 +$40 +203%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $8 +$30 +400%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $79 +$81 +103%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$58 +140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$30 +233%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$70 +233%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $167 +$7 +4%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $80 −$21 -26%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $156 +$193 +124%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $153 +$117 +76%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs Galions (+2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $47 +$73 +156%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$29 +263%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$32 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $82 −$81 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $72 −$72 -99%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 47¢ $48 25m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 30¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $28 4h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $21 8h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 27¢ $31 12h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 42¢ $14 12h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 42¢ $2 12h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $48 15h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $27 19h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 42¢ $18 21h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 42¢ $4 21h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 42¢ $6 21h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 42¢ $2 21h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY Team Bald 55¢ $69 22h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $4 22h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 5¢ $2 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 5¢ $0 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 5¢ $5 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 5¢ $42 25h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $280 25h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 8¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $58 44h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $20 44h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 14¢ $20 45h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 15¢ $22 45h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $41 45h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $43 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.82 · official $484.82 (match) · 3500 history records