Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf68…4996 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$436 (+22%) realized +$437 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$163
sports 15% +$204
finance 14% +$23
politics 7% +$88
other 5% +$7
crypto 3% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.2% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 4 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 25% -3.7%
≤90d 21 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 48% +7.1%
all 26 +22.5% +10.9% 69% 58% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 58% +12.8%
10% +0.3% 38% +2.0%
15% -9.4% 38% -7.9%
20% -18.3% 35% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$21 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$437
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage134d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $233 $232 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $163 +$7 +4%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $23 +$4 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $288 +$23 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $254 +$13 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $233 +$41 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 08 $99 +$16 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $87 +$14 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 22 $64 +$73 +113%
Jets vs. Blues Apr 14 $45 +$47 +104%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Apr 09 $56 +$37 +67%
Kings vs. Nets Apr 09 $61 +$58 +96%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Apr 09 $61 +$66 +108%
Thunder vs. Lakers Mar 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Magic vs. Bucks Mar 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pacers Mar 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 26 $20 +$72 +354%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 22 $39 +$48 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 08 $33 +$38 +116%
Pistons vs. Bulls Feb 22 $27 +$6 +22%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Feb 21 $23 +$34 +150%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 13 $23 +$11 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $233 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $163 9d
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 85¢ $23 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $288 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 95¢ $254 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 85¢ $233 44d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $99 54d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 86¢ $87 59d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $15 66d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $64 67d
Jets vs. Blues BUY Jets 49¢ $45 72d
Kings vs. Nets BUY Nets 51¢ $61 84d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar BUY Yes 48¢ $61 84d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 87d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY Yes 60¢ $56 90d
Timberwolves vs. Celtics BUY Timberwolves 22¢ $20 90d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 45¢ $39 94d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 94d
Magic vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 42¢ $26 104d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 110d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes $4 116d
Mavericks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 46¢ $24 118d
Pistons vs. Bulls BUY Pistons 82¢ $27 120d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Bucks 40¢ $23 121d
Spurs vs. Warriors BUY Spurs 67¢ $23 130d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 31¢ $11 131d
Warriors vs. Lakers BUY Warriors 45¢ $10 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.22 · official $232.22 (match) · 56 history records