Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf67…6842 sports 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%35W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days+$106
14 days−$423
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$625
crypto 33% +$363
other 10% +$121
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +3.5% -6.4% 28% 28% +3.1%
≤30d 185 -23.2% -30.5% 19% 19% -12.9%
≤90d 188 -24.4% -31.6% 19% 19% -13.6%
all 188 -24.4% -31.6% 19% 19% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 19% -13.6%
10% -38.2% 19% -21.9%
15% -44.2% 18% -29.5%
20% -49.6% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$15 · ×4.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses35 / 153
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage34d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +64%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $70 −$68 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$3 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $21 +$132 +642%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 +$29 +262%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$49 +475%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $21 +$161 +785%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$37 +365%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $35 +$12 +34%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$48 +468%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$12 +122%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$18 +89%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +80%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 3h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 18¢ $70 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $51 26h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran $21 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 34h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 34h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under $10 34h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No $15 47h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 47h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $152 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $41 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $5 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $36 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 83¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records