Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf66…472a
weather · 112 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$80 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$88 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage48d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 112 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$18
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? No 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 25? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? No 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 20? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 7? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3? No 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 27? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 20? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 2? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 25? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +72%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 +$1 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 03 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 78% −$77
crypto 22% −$10
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? SELL No 41¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 47¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 76¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -30.7% -37.3% 44% 36% -31.6%
≤30d 99 -32.6% -39.0% 45% 32% -44.7%
≤90d 112 -36.4% -42.5% 42% 30% -46.4%
all 112 -36.4% -42.5% 42% 30% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.5% 30% -46.4%
10% -48.0% 20% -51.5%
15% -53.0% 11% -56.2%
20% -57.6% 9% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records