Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf66…abe3 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-7%) realized −$54 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$4
sports 19% −$51
politics 4% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.5% -16.3% 71% 38% -14.8%
≤30d 22 -10.1% -18.7% 68% 36% -17.5%
≤90d 22 -10.1% -18.7% 68% 36% -17.5%
all 22 -10.1% -18.7% 68% 36% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 36% -17.5%
10% -26.4% 14% -25.4%
15% -33.6% 9% -32.6%
20% -40.1% 0% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)22 / 29
History coverage16d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 40¢ $18 $28 +$10 (+56%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $21 −$2 (-8%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $26 $16 −$10 (-37%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 +$3 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $78 −$66 -84%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $8 $0 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $14 +$2 +11%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$15 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 +$9 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $75 +$8 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +47%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$1 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $17 +$3 +17%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$6 +36%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $39 −$25 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $36 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $34 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $44 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $46 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 32h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $5 32h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $1 32h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $6 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.96 · official $105.97 (match) · 78 history records