Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf65…6737 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$23 (+26%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$25
14 days+$23
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$7
sports 25% +$9
weather 13% +$3
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +67.8% +51.8% 48% 39% +18.2%
≤30d 25 +54.3% +39.6% 44% 36% +11.2%
≤90d 25 +54.3% +39.6% 44% 36% +11.2%
all 25 +54.3% +39.6% 44% 36% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.6% 36% +11.2%
10% +26.3% 32% +0.6%
15% +14.1% 32% -9.1%
20% +2.9% 28% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +94% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +134%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +413%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $1 11h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $5 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $1 35h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $7 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $3 46h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.98 · official $6.98 (match) · 78 history records