Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf62…9bd3 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$74
other 36% −$199
economics 9% +$85
politics 3% +$83
tech 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 11 -25.7% -32.8% 36% 36% -28.0%
all 35 +2.9% -6.9% 49% 49% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 49% -9.2%
10% -15.8% 40% -17.9%
15% -23.9% 26% -25.8%
20% -31.4% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$27 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage620d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 86¢ 95¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 19 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026? May 15 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 02 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $20 −$11 -55%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June? Apr 28 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Apr 21 $90 −$35 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 27 $60 −$5 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Mar 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 17 $60 +$55 +92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Mar 01 $150 −$22 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 21 $130 −$32 -25%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 14 $100 −$54 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $50 +$81 +163%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Feb 03 $200 −$102 -51%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Feb 03 $64 −$10 -16%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jan 31 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 27 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 16 $250 −$58 -23%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? Jan 15 $240 +$38 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 08 $141 −$2 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 29-January 4? Jan 02 $100 −$20 -20%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 01 $120 +$40 +33%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 21 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 October 20-26? Nov 08 $25 +$12 +47%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 08 $100 +$25 +25%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Oct 21 $50 −$27 -55%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 29-October 5? Oct 08 $60 +$28 +47%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? Sep 18 $10 +$12 +117%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 19 $50 +$19 +39%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $99 +$83 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 7d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 36d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 44d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 44d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 44d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 53d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 86¢ $32 53d
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $29 59d
Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 59d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 60d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $30 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 65d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $30 83d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 83d
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? SELL Yes 65¢ $38 84d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 85d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 85d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? BUY Yes 52¢ $60 109d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 119d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY No 84¢ $50 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.51 · official $116.52 (match) · 135 history records