trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 75% | 0% | -6.8% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +10.3% | -0.2% | 70% | 10% | -5.0% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +12.0% | +1.3% | 77% | 15% | -4.7% |
| all | 13 | +12.0% | +1.3% | 77% | 15% | -4.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +1.3% | 15% | -4.7% |
| 10% | -8.4% | 15% | -13.8% |
| 15% | -17.2% | 15% | -22.1% |
| 20% | -25.3% | 8% | -29.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $58 | $58 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $50 | $51 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $24 | $23 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $54 | +$5 | +8% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $60 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $101 | +$1 | +1% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 03 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $3 | +$5 | +178% |
| LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua | May 06 | $2 | +$1 | +49% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? | Mar 29 | $2 | $0 | +2% |