Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf5f…c035 crypto 374 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22,444 (+15%) realized +$22,569 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%195W / 178L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$2,679
14 days+$1,694
30 days+$6,566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$17,886
world 7% +$4,651
politics 2% −$3,050
other 1% −$790
sports 0% −$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +36.6% +23.6% 71% 71% +30.4%
≤30d 31 +16.3% +5.2% 61% 61% +8.7%
≤90d 239 -8.9% -17.5% 49% 49% -3.0%
all 373 +0.0% -9.5% 52% 52% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 52% +1.7%
10% -18.1% 52% -8.0%
15% -26.1% 50% -16.9%
20% -33.3% 49% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$395 vs −$329 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$1,375
Realized+$22,569
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses195 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage124d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Down 52¢ 48¢ $1,500 $1,375 −$125 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 22 $776 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $776 +$722 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $776 +$717 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $1,495 +$1,379 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 18 $776 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $776 +$693 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $746 +$666 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $2,998 −$2,899 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $1,551 −$1,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 13 $778 −$750 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $776 +$722 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $776 +$722 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3,038 +$2,720 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 09 $1,547 −$1,496 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 08 $776 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $776 +$722 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $1,544 +$1,293 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $776 +$722 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 05 $777 −$750 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $776 +$722 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $776 +$725 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $776 +$681 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1,510 +$1,381 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 30 $776 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $1,520 +$1,162 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 28 $776 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $776 +$705 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1,528 +$1,408 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 25 $776 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $774 +$597 +77%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi May 23 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 23 $776 −$776 -100%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 23 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 23 $413 −$413 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $777 +$756 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $1,553 +$1,474 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $1,553 +$1,384 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $777 −$776 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $777 +$767 +99%
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $105 −$90 -86%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? May 18 $777 −$777 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 16? May 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 18 $1,390 −$1,390 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 18 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 18 $2,071 −$2,071 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 52¢ $1,551 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 50¢ $776 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 100¢ $1,498 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 50¢ $776 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 100¢ $1,493 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 50¢ $776 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 100¢ $2,875 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 50¢ $1,495 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 50¢ $776 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 100¢ $1,469 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 51¢ $776 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $1,412 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $746 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 52¢ $2,977 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 52¢ $1,551 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 46¢ $778 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 100¢ $1,498 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 50¢ $776 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $1,498 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 50¢ $776 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 99¢ $5,758 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 49¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 50¢ $3,028 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 51¢ $1,547 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 50¢ $776 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 100¢ $1,498 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 50¢ $776 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? SELL Up 100¢ $2,837 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 53¢ $1,544 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,374.74 · official $1,374.74 (match) · 826 history records