Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf5c…e3cd
crypto · 45 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day124.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$8 +350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$6
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 43% -13.9%
≤30d 44 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 43% -13.9%
≤90d 44 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 43% -13.9%
all 44 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 43% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 43% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 20% -22.1%
15% -35.2% 14% -29.6%
20% -41.5% 11% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.76 (match) · 124 history records