Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf5a…9d75 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$29 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$52
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$110
other 26% +$81
world 1% −$11
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +42.8% +29.2% 28% 28% -13.5%
≤30d 38 +33.2% +20.5% 26% 26% -12.2%
≤90d 38 +33.2% +20.5% 26% 26% -12.2%
all 38 +33.2% +20.5% 26% 26% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.5% 26% -12.2%
10% +9.0% 26% -20.6%
15% -1.6% 26% -28.2%
20% -11.2% 21% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$32 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage9d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 59¢ 54¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $99 +$45 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $50 +$312 +624%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$228 +456%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$188 +376%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $0 +$5 +1011%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$4 +270%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 +$4 +488%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$4 +614%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $303 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $99 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $59 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 31¢ $84 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $6 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $4 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $0 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $50 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $49 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.76 · official $45.76 (match) · 125 history records