Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf57…f6e7 crypto 1647 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$838 (-5%) realized −$838 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%893W / 754L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$203
14 days+$145
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 54% -6.9%
≤30d 733 -9.8% -18.4% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤90d 1647 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 52% -10.2%
all 1647 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 52% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 52% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 48% -18.8%
15% -29.3% 44% -26.6%
20% -36.2% 37% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$838
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses893 / 754
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1647 / 1647
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1647 Trades
no open positions (311 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$19 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$16 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$45 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$19 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$12 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $45 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $45 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $27 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records