Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf56…50e7 sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%51W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$64
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$180
world 8% +$1
crypto 7% +$35
other 2% −$6
politics 1% −$13
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.1% +3.3% 100% 67% +2.5%
≤30d 114 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 32% -15.5%
≤90d 114 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 32% -15.5%
all 114 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 32% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 32% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 23% -23.6%
15% -36.9% 17% -31.0%
20% -43.1% 12% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses51 / 63
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions17
Markets (closed)114 / 131
History coverage26d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 89¢ 92¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 69¢ 71¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 67¢ $87 $79 −$8 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 76¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 80¢ 95¢ $28 $34 +$5 (+19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 75¢ 96¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+28%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 48¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 73¢ 98¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 48¢ 84¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+77%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 71¢ 91¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+29%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 83¢ 93¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+12%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 93¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 79¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 60¢ 85¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+42%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 1¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $11 −$4 -36%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $47 −$4 -9%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $58 −$3 -5%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $32 −$25 -78%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $141 −$7 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $47 +$3 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $38 −$2 -5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $61 −$7 -11%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $72 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $73 +$14 +19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $49 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $148 −$61 -41%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $29 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $43 +$10 +24%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $67 +$9 +13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $52 −$19 -37%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $228 −$46 -20%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $126 +$79 +63%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $53 −$10 -18%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $25 +$7 +29%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $21 +$9 +43%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $47 +$6 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $23 +$3 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $46 −$28 -61%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $73 −$40 -55%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $132 +$12 +9%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $3 +$2 +86%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3 +$3 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $1 −$1 -62%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $8 −$6 -84%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $5 −$3 -55%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 3 Winner May 28 $18 +$2 +13%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 3 Winner May 28 $5 $0 +7%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner May 28 $14 −$7 -46%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 Winner May 28 $19 $0 -2%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 4 Winner May 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 1 Winner May 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 +$4 +238%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $21 $0 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $38 +$2 +5%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $6 $0 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $28 −$15 -55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $4 +$2 +48%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $30 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $15 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $26 12h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $19 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $99 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $85 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 83¢ $4 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 83¢ $4 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 83¢ $4 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 83¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $11 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $4 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 79¢ $7 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $11 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $11 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 77¢ $11 9d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $11 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $7 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 44¢ $10 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 10d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 60¢ $8 10d
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY No 79¢ $10 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $17 10d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.07 · official $568.07 (match) · 613 history records