Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf54…e356
crypto · 61 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$65 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses30 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage106d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Up 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Team Yandex 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Aurora 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Aurora 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 26 $2 $0 +20%
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 26 $24 −$22 -91%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $5 +$6 +112%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Mar 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $1 $0 +45%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$1 +9%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $5 +$8 +163%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $13 +$6 +45%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $5 +$5 +104%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 01 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$2 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 01 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6PM ET Feb 28 $14 −$12 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 28 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 28 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 28 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 28 $1 +$3 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 28 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $5 −$4 -83%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $8 −$6 -70%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 28 $1 −$1 -89%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Feb 28 $1 +$1 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 53% −$39
sports 23% +$15
other 12% −$12
politics 8% −$22
world 3% −$6
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $5 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 51¢ $3 79d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $3 79d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 83¢ $2 79d
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 79d
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 96d
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 96d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $11 97d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag SELL Xtreme Gaming 100¢ $7 97d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 47¢ $5 97d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag BUY Xtreme Gaming 68¢ $5 97d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Aurora 58¢ $5 97d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 102d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 9¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $11 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 15¢ $1 104d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $13 104d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner BUY Aurora 38¢ $5 104d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $19 104d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 69¢ $13 104d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 37¢ $5 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.0% -46.6% 29% 29% -34.9%
≤30d 7 -41.0% -46.6% 29% 29% -34.9%
≤90d 10 -45.8% -51.0% 30% 30% -60.1%
all 60 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 45% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 45% -30.2%
10% -22.4% 35% -36.9%
15% -29.9% 32% -43.0%
20% -36.8% 23% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $4.92 (match) · 127 history records