Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BF 0xbf54…ac36 politics 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%19W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$854per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$18
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$49
other 40% −$347
sports 10% +$346
world 4% −$3
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 111 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 14% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 13% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 13% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,271) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$8 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses19 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage130d
Avg bet$854
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $499 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,243 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,341 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,228 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,816 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $152 +$1 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,394 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $520 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,192 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,979 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 19 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $1,313 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,470 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,590 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,930 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,860 −$2 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,422 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $482 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $496 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $454 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $1,349 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1,785 −$2 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $439 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $2,480 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $690 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $429 36m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $430 2h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $450 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $450 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $484 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $485 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $474 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $475 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $424 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $425 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $683 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $684 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $852 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $853 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $785 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $786 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $930 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $931 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $863 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $864 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $906 18d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $784 19d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $785 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $894 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $825 21d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $884 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.61 · official $498.61 (match) · 412 history records