Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf52…9cc4 crypto 961 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$797 (-11%) realized −$788 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%471W / 462L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$204
14 days−$195
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$866
sports 29% −$147
other 7% −$62
world 4% −$34
politics 2% −$13
weather 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -15.5% -23.5% 50% 25% -21.0%
≤30d 743 -6.5% -15.4% 54% 47% -16.6%
≤90d 933 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 44% -22.3%
all 933 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 44% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 44% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 37% -29.7%
15% -31.0% 23% -36.5%
20% -37.8% 13% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$788
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses471 / 462
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions27
Markets (closed)933 / 961
History coverage37d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 44¢ 44¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Washington Nationals 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Athletics 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 26¢ 20¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-21%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 66¢ 64¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 87¢ 50¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 72¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 285 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $8 +$4 +48%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -25%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 −$1 -22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -25%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -3%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 11, 9PM ET? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 9PM ET? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Cho Guesung: 3+ shots Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
HYPE Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 11, 9PM ET? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Jordan Walker: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Royce Lewis: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Maikel Garcia: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Taylor Trammell: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 12, 4AM ET? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 3AM ET? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 12, 4AM ET? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 12, 3AM ET? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 12, 3AM ET? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 12, 3AM ET? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 4AM ET? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 81¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $10 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 72¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 64¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $10 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 2h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 67¢ $10 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 66¢ $8 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 4h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 63¢ $10 4h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 64¢ $10 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 4h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $10 4h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 9¢ $8 15h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $10 15h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $10 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $10 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $10 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $7 16h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $8 16h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $10 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 44¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.77 · official $263.53 (match) · 1958 history records