Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf51…b295 other 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$153 (+20%) realized +$160 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$81
14 days+$62
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$123
sports 9% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.9% +19.3% 71% 14% +33.6%
≤30d 18 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 22% +12.6%
≤90d 18 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 22% +12.6%
all 18 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 22% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 22% +12.6%
10% -18.7% 17% +1.8%
15% -26.6% 11% -8.0%
20% -33.8% 6% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.11 per $1 lost it wins $5.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage29d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 46¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 28¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 35¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $38 +$82 +216%
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 04 $6 $0 -1%
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 04 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Álex Remiro be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Carlos Soler be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $180 +$72 +40%
Will Fermín López be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad May 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 24 $66 +$7 +11%
Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squa May 22 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 18 $44 −$12 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $4 2d
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 2d
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $39 2d
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 2d
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 2d
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $119 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $20 3d
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $24 3d
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $29 3d
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 49¢ $40 3d
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $17 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 45¢ $4 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $4 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $0 3d
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $20 4d
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $20 4d
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 4d
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $22 4d
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 6d
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 6d
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $13 6d
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $8 6d
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $3 6d
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 7d
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 7d
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 8d
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.36 · official $159.54 (match) · 68 history records