Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BF 0xbf50…6f83 world 15 markets active 14h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$4
sports 1% −$6
other 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.8%
all 15 -6.0% -15.0% 53% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage483d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 04 $1 $0 +1%
Austin Peay vs. Queens Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $50 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $50 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $13 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $14 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $13 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $15 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $49 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $37 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records