Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf4d…e606
crypto · 236 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$38 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$172
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses221 / 5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)226 / 236
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 226 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$36
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 89¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Matt Fulmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? No 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% +$54
politics 9% −$13
finance 3% −$4
other 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 18h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $15 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 226 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 226 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 0% -8.5%
all 226 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 0% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.88 · official $172.11 (match) · 465 history records