Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf4d…33ed world 110 markets active 12h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (220 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$38,563 (+14%) realized +$34,407 · open +$4,156
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%45W / 24L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$2,485per market
Trades / day219.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$49,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$357
7 days+$153
14 days+$9,109
30 days+$9,539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$13,229
other 4% −$50
politics 2% +$204
sports 1% +$313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (220 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.2% -13.4% 71% 44% -9.3%
≤30d 69 +28.1% +15.9% 65% 38% -5.4%
≤90d 69 +28.1% +15.9% 65% 38% -5.4%
all 69 +28.1% +15.9% 65% 38% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover219.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.9% 38% -5.4%
10% +4.8% 20% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -5.3% 12% -22.7%
20% -14.6% 10% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$2,783) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +62% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$554 vs −$642 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$49,269
Realized+$34,407
Unrealized+$4,156
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses45 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions41
Markets (closed)69 / 110
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$2,485
Trades / day219.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 98¢ $17,005 $19,397 +$2,392 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $6,296 $6,680 +$384 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $5,240 $4,889 −$351 (-7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 66¢ 90¢ $3,508 $4,841 +$1,333 (+38%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $2,386 $2,507 +$121 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? No 64¢ 79¢ $1,826 $2,252 +$426 (+23%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $2,171 $2,209 +$38 (+2%)
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,092 $1,135 +$43 (+4%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $826 $877 +$51 (+6%)
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $733 $767 +$35 (+5%)
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 91¢ $648 $703 +$55 (+9%)
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 93¢ 97¢ $632 $662 +$30 (+5%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 78¢ 88¢ $534 $601 +$67 (+12%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $268 $291 +$22 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $246 $219 −$27 (-11%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $196 $207 +$11 (+5%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 90¢ 96¢ $159 $171 +$11 (+7%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 62¢ 28¢ $362 $163 −$199 (-55%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $147 $163 +$16 (+11%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $117 $126 +$9 (+8%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 99¢ $67 $83 +$16 (+25%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 80¢ 73¢ $80 $73 −$7 (-9%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $401 $51 −$350 (-87%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? No 86¢ 80¢ $43 $40 −$3 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 98¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 27 $146 −$37 -25%
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $302 −$302 -100%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $2,763 +$121 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $598 +$4 +1%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? Jun 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $788 −$26 -3%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 25 $481 +$39 +8%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $570 +$24 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $309 −$256 -83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$47 +24%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$28 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $220 +$83 +38%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $305 +$37 +12%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 24 $485 +$15 +3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $157 +$13 +8%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $99 +$51 +52%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $205 +$65 +32%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $238 −$114 -48%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $200 +$70 +35%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $204 −$6 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $335 +$67 +20%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2,783 +$450 +16%
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch Jun 23 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $304 +$48 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $439 +$135 +31%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $496 +$66 +13%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $465 −$465 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $561 +$32 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $592 +$305 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$11 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $894 −$744 -83%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $21,968 +$7,722 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $31,472 −$7,299 -23%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $55 +$46 +85%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $876 +$39 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $1,733 −$1,060 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $11,832 +$2,472 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $15,615 −$944 -6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $37 +$849 +2319%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7,610 −$1,168 -15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 19 $122 −$110 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 12h
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 12h
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 12h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 17h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $23 17h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 17h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $29 17h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 17h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,456 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,474 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $893 30h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 33h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 34h
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? SELL No 98¢ $52 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $55 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 44h
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 2d
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $89 2d
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? SELL No 97¢ $121 2d
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? SELL No 97¢ $39 2d
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $882 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $96 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,268.82 · official $49,269.42 (match) · 3500 history records