Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf4b…7126 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$202 (+0%) realized +$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%25W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$1,103per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$19
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$66
other 38% −$89
sports 12% +$344
world 5% −$6
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -2.5% -11.8% 9% 3% -9.7%
all 121 +1.1% -8.5% 21% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 13% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 13% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 12% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,803) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$11 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$681
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses25 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,103
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $681 $681 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $451 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,108 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $940 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,197 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $2,927 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,077 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 03 $306 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 03 $396 +$1 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,933 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $5,663 −$6 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,159 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,007 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,183 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,146 −$3 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $1,105 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $4,857 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $787 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,906 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $5,030 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,206 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,144 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,154 −$3 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $3,069 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,509 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,121 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,156 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,448 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $3,030 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $450 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $451 3h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $456 4h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $457 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $681 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $938 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $940 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,139 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,140 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,141 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,065 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $989 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $991 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $893 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $895 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $441 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $442 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $384 19d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $384 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $681.12 · official $681.12 (match) · 404 history records