Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbf4a…2037 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 37L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$3
world 30% +$1
politics 10% +$8
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
weather 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 61 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 7% -8.6%
10% -17.8% 5% -17.3%
15% -25.8% 3% -25.3%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage479d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $14 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $50 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $8 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $17 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $18 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marquinhos be named the Champions League Final man of the match? May 31 $18 $0 +1%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 30 $18 $0 +1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $18 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $18 $0 -1%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 23 $25 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $19 $0 -2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $7 $0 -5%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 30 $4 +$2 +58%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $1 $0 -11%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $34 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $31 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $15 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $47 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $33 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $43 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $38 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records