Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf48…e5d2 other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$13
other 24% −$7
sports 21% −$6
culture 8% −$9
crypto 6% +$4
economics 6% −$8
finance 2% +$3
tech 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 139 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage170d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 92¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 24 $603 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 23 $187 +$1 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $395 −$3 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 22 $388 $0 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $188 $0 +0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $389 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $404 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $197 −$2 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 19 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $406 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $400 −$3 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 16 $198 −$4 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $209 +$1 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $208 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 13 $213 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 13 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 12 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 12 $405 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $205 +$7 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $204 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $199 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $557 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $198 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 13 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 13 $421 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $58 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $41 7d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $41 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 93¢ $56 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $57 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 30d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $38 43d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $19 43d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $19 43d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $194 95d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $17 95d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $34 95d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $10 95d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 95d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 95d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $52 95d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $188 96d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 96d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 96d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 96d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 96d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 96d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $184 97d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 97d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $98 97d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $6 97d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $35 97d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $192 97d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $74 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.00 · official $58.00 (match) · 593 history records