Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf45…a0ec crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-5%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -11.4% -19.8% 56% 53% -8.1%
≤30d 43 -11.4% -19.8% 56% 53% -8.1%
≤90d 46 -14.9% -23.0% 54% 50% -13.4%
all 46 -14.9% -23.0% 54% 50% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 50% -13.4%
10% -30.4% 43% -21.7%
15% -37.1% 41% -29.3%
20% -43.3% 22% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage31d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.75 · official $1.44 · 111 history records