Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf44…71a4 sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,962 (+8%) realized +$6,510 · open −$548
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 43L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$852per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Fees−$1,351est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$4,695
other 16% −$3,936
economics 1% −$558
world 0% −$43
crypto 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +20.7% +9.2% 52% 52% -9.1%
≤30d 91 +33.1% +20.5% 53% 49% -8.7%
≤90d 91 +33.1% +20.5% 53% 49% -8.7%
all 91 +33.1% +20.5% 53% 49% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.5% 49% -8.7%
10% +8.9% 44% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -1.6% 42% -25.4%
20% -11.2% 40% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$1,248) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +44% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$760 vs −$832 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,593
Realized+$6,510
Unrealized−$548
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1,351
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage17d
Avg bet$852
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $1,025 $1,035 +$10 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $1,116 $558 −$558 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $1,129 +$2,322 +206%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,484 −$1,484 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,225 +$1,275 +104%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,032 +$1,366 +132%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,409 +$1,741 +124%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,000 +$998 +100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $470 +$530 +113%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $992 −$992 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $558 +$909 +163%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $274 −$274 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $43 −$43 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,604 −$3,580 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1,200 +$755 +63%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,647 +$2,772 +168%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $1,559 +$1,477 +95%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1,535 −$1,535 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,741 +$1,559 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,980 −$1,979 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,250 +$2,744 +122%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $300 +$668 +222%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $660 +$627 +95%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$20 +82%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $488 +$494 +101%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,938 −$1,938 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2,480 −$2,480 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,283 +$2,267 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $664 −$264 -40%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $2,253 +$1,798 +80%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $3,253 −$1,333 -41%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1,194 −$1,176 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,600 +$1,600 +100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $409 +$1,191 +291%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,000 +$1,500 +150%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $2,054 −$748 -36%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1,457 +$1,499 +103%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $287 +$738 +257%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $500 +$398 +80%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1,497 −$1,497 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1,122 −$714 -64%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $590 +$400 +68%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 11 $928 +$1,295 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $885 −$885 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 1m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $769 2m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $97 6m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 9m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 9m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 9m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 10m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 12m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 12m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $9 13m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 14m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 14m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 14m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 14m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 17m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 18m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 18m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $69 18m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $27 18m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $4 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $4 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,593.21 · official $1,593.21 (match) · 971 history records