Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf41…0672 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$114 (+9%) realized +$116 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%46W / 54L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$140
14 days+$122
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$31
sports 22% +$105
crypto 16% −$30
world 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 32% +2.6%
≤30d 100 -6.3% -15.2% 46% 35% -1.6%
≤90d 100 -6.3% -15.2% 46% 35% -1.6%
all 100 -6.3% -15.2% 46% 35% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 35% -1.6%
10% -23.3% 29% -11.1%
15% -30.7% 24% -19.6%
20% -37.5% 15% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses46 / 54
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)100 / 105
History coverage24d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $97 +$45 +47%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $58 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $104 −$38 -37%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$7 -83%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$19 +363%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$42 +103%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$17 +85%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $45 +$36 +80%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -70%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 $0 -32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $122 −$52 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $140 +$21 +15%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$8 -49%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$17 -68%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $76 +$54 +71%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $22 +$28 +126%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$16 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $59 +$20 +34%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$23 +75%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 12m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 20m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 26m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 32m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 32m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 33m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 46m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 58m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 58m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 14¢ $43 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 3h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $83 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.21 · official $29.21 (match) · 281 history records