Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf40…d43a crypto 441 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (284 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$140 (-9%) realized −$142 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%205W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day283.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (284 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 440 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 45% -17.3%
≤30d 440 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 45% -17.3%
≤90d 440 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 45% -17.3%
all 440 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 45% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover283.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 45% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 43% -25.2%
15% -37.5% 39% -32.4%
20% -43.7% 31% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses205 / 235
Open positions1
Markets (closed)440 / 441
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day283.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 32¢ 56¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $111 +$94 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$60 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$33 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.98 · official $4.68 (match) · 656 history records