Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

BF 0xbf3f…62ee other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$210 (+13%) realized +$230 · open −$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR63%break-even

Win rate63%12W / 7L

Drawdown71%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$27

7 days−$27

14 days+$123

30 days+$224

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +63%

net ROI/market (all)+9.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-5.0%	-14.0%	60%	60%	-14.6%
≤30d	19	+21.0%	+9.5%	63%	63%	+7.7%
≤90d	19	+21.0%	+9.5%	63%	63%	+7.7%
all	19	+21.0%	+9.5%	63%	63%	+7.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.5%	63%	+7.7%
10%	-1.0%	63%	-2.7%
15%	-10.6%	58%	-12.1%
20%	-19.3%	47%	-20.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late +36% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$50 vs −$54 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$345

Realized+$230

Unrealized−$20

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses12 / 7

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions4

Markets (closed)19 / 23

History coverage18d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown71%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$135	$114	−$21 (-16%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$95	$94	−$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$35	$38	+$3 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$157	+$48	+31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$95	+$63	+67%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 17	$158	−$158	-100%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw?	Jun 17	$21	−$21	-100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 17	$53	+$41	+78%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 08	$53	+$28	+53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 08	$53	−$53	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 08	$52	+$19	+36%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 08	$53	+$114	+214%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 07	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	Jun 07	$21	+$38	+178%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 07	$53	+$32	+61%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw?	Jun 06	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05?	Jun 06	$53	−$53	-100%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$53	+$94	+178%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 05	$53	−$53	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 05	$53	+$27	+51%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$53	+$61	+115%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 03	$105	+$40	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$105	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$100	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$157	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$95	21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$91	7d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$21	9d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	54¢	$105	9d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$53	9d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$53	9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	70¢	$52	10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	32¢	$53	10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	30¢	$53	10d
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$21	11d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	38¢	$21	11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	BUY Yes	59¢	$53	11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$53	11d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05?	BUY Yes	43¢	$53	12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	53¢	$53	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	34¢	$53	13d
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$21	13d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	63¢	$53	13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	48¢	$53	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	44¢	$53	14d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?	BUY Yes	69¢	$105	14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$37	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.76 · official $344.76 (match) · 62 history records