Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf3b…8da5 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$4
politics 5% −$7
other 2% $0
sports 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 0% -10.4%
all 27 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 4% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 4% -11.2%
10% -23.7% 0% -19.7%
15% -31.0% 0% -27.5%
20% -37.8% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage489d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $84 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $30 −$3 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $31 +$2 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $66 −$3 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? Jun 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 27 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $10 $0 +1%
St. John's vs. DePaul Mar 05 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $27 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $30 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $33 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $31 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $31 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $17 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $10 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $22 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $11 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records