Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf39…3394 sports 360 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$470 (-1%) realized −$323 · open −$147
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%229W / 130L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$395est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$472
7 days+$417
14 days+$80
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$511
other 2% +$5
crypto 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +5.6% -4.5% 65% 57% -3.5%
≤30d 242 +4.6% -5.4% 65% 51% -9.6%
≤90d 359 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 52% -10.5%
all 359 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 52% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 52% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 38% -19.1%
15% -22.5% 25% -26.9%
20% -30.1% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$54 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses229 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$395
Open positions1
Markets (closed)359 / 360
History coverage46d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 50¢ 36¢ $509 $362 −$147 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $601 −$86 -14%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $427 +$177 +41%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $701 −$76 -11%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $10 +$3 +37%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $190 +$113 +59%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $338 +$48 +14%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $359 −$24 -7%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $278 +$81 +29%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $259 +$22 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $181 +$78 +43%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $278 −$96 -34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$2 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $254 +$22 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $232 +$22 +10%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $212 +$20 +10%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $181 +$29 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $156 +$27 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $82 +$106 +130%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum Jun 20 $19 +$20 +109%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $19 −$8 -45%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $9 −$9 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $156 −$153 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $132 +$24 +18%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 +$81 +158%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $83 −$23 -28%
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Ada Kumru Jun 19 $17 +$4 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $94 +$9 +10%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $100 −$7 -7%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $82 +$19 +23%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $121 +$32 +26%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$12 -79%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $82 +$21 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $26 +$56 +216%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$5 +21%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $42 −$15 -35%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 16 $33 +$9 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$17 +112%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $36 +$12 +34%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $22 +$26 +118%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $13 +$9 +66%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $7 +$6 +85%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 50¢ $517 18m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 76¢ $516 44m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 88¢ $601 47m
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $603 1h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $427 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $427 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 73¢ $316 2h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Damir Dzumhur 100¢ $13 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend SELL Gabriela Ruse 95¢ $303 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend BUY Gabriela Ruse 59¢ $190 2h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 73¢ $10 2h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 36¢ $198 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 68¢ $384 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 75¢ $349 5h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 75¢ $38 5h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 65¢ $338 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Liudmila Samsonova 64¢ $335 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 68¢ $204 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 68¢ $3 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 68¢ $151 6h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Anna Blinkova 78¢ $359 6h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Anna Blinkova 60¢ $278 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $281 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $259 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $259 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $181 17h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 56¢ $182 17h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 84¢ $278 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.61 · official $412.54 · 1014 history records