Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BF 0xbf37…f42e crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%45W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$9
crypto 12% +$2
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 54 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses45 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage536d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $56 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 03 $33 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $5,086 −$5 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Feb 18 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 29d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 30d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 61d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 62d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $59 62d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 122d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 123d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 149d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $70 149d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 180d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $56 181d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $22 210d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $40 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $29 241d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $36 241d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 273d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $46 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 300d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 301d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 302d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 333d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 334d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $57 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $34 363d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.95 · official $68.95 (match) · 114 history records