Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf35…13ec other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1
world 32% $0
crypto 8% +$1
tech 7% $0
economics 6% +$1
finance 5% +$1
politics 4% +$1
weather 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 43 -0.8% -10.3% 49% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.9% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $39 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $46 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $40 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $45 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $40 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $17 +$1 +9%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $1 $0 +26%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 25 $16 $0 +0%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Mar 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? Mar 11 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $43 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $34 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $2 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 58¢ $39 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $40 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $36 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $36 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $44 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $45 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $14 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $35 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 31d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 189d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records