Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbf34…e9f2 world 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%40W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$11
other 19% −$1
politics 14% $0
sports 13% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% −$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 28 +49.8% +35.5% 46% 11% -8.7%
≤90d 75 +18.2% +6.9% 39% 4% -9.2%
all 96 +13.0% +2.2% 42% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -7.5% 1% -18.1%
15% -16.5% 1% -26.0%
20% -24.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses40 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage465d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $89 +$5 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $61 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $79 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $72 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $96 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $52 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $14 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 +$1 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $7 +$1 +16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $120 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $61 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $79 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $84 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $51 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $52 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $20 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $48 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $26 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $21 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $21 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $0.95 (match) · 401 history records