Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BF 0xbf33…8aed other 43 markets active 5h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$7
world 22% $0
politics 19% +$2
sports 9% +$4
crypto 6% +$1
culture 4% $0
economics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.5%
all 41 +4.0% -5.9% 22% 7% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 7% -8.0%
10% -14.9% 7% -16.8%
15% -23.1% 2% -24.8%
20% -30.7% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×20.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.85 per $1 lost it wins $22.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage284d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 85¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 30¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $27 +$6 +23%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 30 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 02 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $1 $0 +4%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $27 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $3 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $30 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $9 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $18 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $28 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $6 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $24 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $30 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $19 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $9 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $30 26d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $30 26d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 99¢ $20 205d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 99¢ $1 205d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 99¢ $1 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.27 · official $17.11 (match) · 168 history records