Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf32…d48f world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$7
other 18% $0
politics 13% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 42 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage284d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $64 $60 −$4 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $114 +$1 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $134 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $75 +$3 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $80 −$12 -15%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $129 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $76 +$4 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $105 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $67 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $74 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $12 $0 +2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $54 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $17 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $45 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $3 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $64 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 96¢ $16 39h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 96¢ $28 39h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $44 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $71 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $71 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $70 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $70 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $63 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $64 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $8 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.26 · official $60.26 (match) · 398 history records