Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf31…525e weather 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+1%) realized +$101 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%352W / 14L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% +$88
world 11% +$3
crypto 4% +$1
sports 3% +$6
other 2% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.1% -9.7% 96% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 107 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 352 +0.5% -9.1% 97% 0% -8.9%
all 366 +0.5% -9.1% 96% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.47 per $1 lost it wins $9.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses352 / 14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)366 / 374
History coverage231d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $89 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 96¢ 94¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 6? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $24 56m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 58m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 90¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 85¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 82¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 78¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 76¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.24 · official $198.24 (match) · 860 history records