Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf2f…4659 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$8
tech 28% −$4
politics 17% −$2
sports 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.2% -18.7% 0% 0% -18.8%
≤30d 10 -10.2% -18.7% 0% 0% -18.8%
≤90d 10 -10.2% -18.7% 0% 0% -18.8%
all 10 -10.2% -18.7% 0% 0% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -18.8%
10% -26.5% 0% -26.6%
15% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
20% -40.1% 0% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -14%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $18 −$3 -14%
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? Jun 16 $23 −$2 -7%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$2 -9%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 1h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 31¢ $15 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 34¢ $18 1h
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? SELL No 44¢ $21 1h
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? BUY No 45¢ $23 1h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 37¢ $6 1h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 37¢ $7 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 79¢ $17 4h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 84¢ $18 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 5h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 8h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 59¢ $3 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 60¢ $3 8h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W SELL Yes 36¢ $9 8h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 37¢ $9 8h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 14¢ $7 28h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 19¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records