Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf2d…d3f9 crypto 1453 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$425 (-1%) realized −$430 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%1307W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$274
14 days−$284
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$580
other 10% +$21
sports 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 1% -10.9%
≤30d 275 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 2% -10.3%
≤90d 895 -4.8% -13.9% 91% 6% -10.9%
all 1452 -1.7% -11.0% 90% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 13% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 4% -19.0%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.8%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$430
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1307 / 145
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1452 / 1453
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $146 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $145 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $143 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $142 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $141 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $136 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $135 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $133 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $132 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $131 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $128 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $124 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $123 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $122 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $117 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $118 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $115 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $114 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $113 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $112 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $111 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $110 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $107 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $106 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$7 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $32 3m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 8m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $21 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $148 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $146 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $145 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $143 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $142 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $141 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $93 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $136 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $135 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $133 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $132 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $131 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $130 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $128 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $126 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.46 · official $22.40 · 3500 history records