Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf2c…5011 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%40W / 8L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$1
economics 19% $0
other 13% $0
politics 12% $0
tech 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 48 +0.2% -9.3% 83% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses40 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage494d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $29 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 13 $58 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $23 $0 -1%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 11 $27 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Mar 21 $21 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 21 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $13 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 63d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 121d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 148d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $12 180d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $26 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $25 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 242d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 271d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $29 333d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 366d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.65 · official $40.65 (match) · 104 history records